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Everything is predictable : how Bayes’ remarkable theorem explains the world / Tom Chivers.

Everything is predictable : how Bayes’ remarkable theorem explains the world / Tom Chivers.
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Item Information
Shelf Location Collection Volume Ref. Branch Status Due Date
519.542 CHIV
 Adult Non Fiction   Campsie . . On Loan . 15 Jun 2024
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Field name Details
ISBN 9781399604048 (paperback)
9781399604031 (hardback)
Name Chivers, Tom (Science writer) author.
Title Everything is predictable : how Bayes’ remarkable theorem explains the world / Tom Chivers.
Published London : Weidenfeld & Nicolson, 2024.
©2024
Description xxvii, 303 pages : illustrations ; 24 cm
Notes Includes bibliographical references (pages 273-291) and index.
Summary Thomas Bayes was an eighteenth-century Presbyterian minister and amateur mathematician whose obscure life belied the profound impact of his work. Like most research into probability at the time, his theorem was mainly seen as relevant to games of chance, like dice and cards. But its implications soon became clear. Bayes' theorem helps explain why highly accurate screening tests can lead to false positives, causing unnecessary anxiety for patients. A failure to account for it in court has put innocent people in jail. But its influence goes far beyond practical applications. A cornerstone of rational thought, Bayesian principles are used in modelling and forecasting. 'Superforecasters', a group of expert predictors who outperform CIA analysts, use a Bayesian approach. And many argue that Bayes' theorem is not just a useful tool, but a description of almost everything - that it is the underlying architecture of rationality, and of the human brain. Fusing biography, razor-sharp science communication and intellectual history, Everything Is Predictable is a captivating tour of Bayes' theorem and its impact on modern life. From medical testing to artificial intelligence, Tom Chivers shows how a single compelling idea can have far-reaching consequences.
Subjects Statistical decision
Bayesian statistical decision theory
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