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Everything is predictable : how Bayes’ remarkable theorem explains the world / Tom Chivers.
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Catalogue Record 1248132
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Catalogue Record 1248132
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Catalogue Information
Catalogue Record 1248132
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519.542 CHIV
Adult Non Fiction
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Catalogue Record 1248132
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Catalogue Record 1248132 ItemInfo
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Catalogue Record 1248132 ItemInfo
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ISBN
9781399604048 (paperback)
9781399604031 (hardback)
Name
Chivers, Tom (Science writer)
author.
Title
Everything is predictable : how Bayes’ remarkable theorem explains the world / Tom Chivers.
Published
London : Weidenfeld & Nicolson, 2024.
©2024
Description
xxvii, 303 pages : illustrations ; 24 cm
Notes
Includes bibliographical references (pages 273-291) and index.
Summary
Thomas Bayes was an eighteenth-century Presbyterian minister and amateur mathematician whose obscure life belied the profound impact of his work. Like most research into probability at the time, his theorem was mainly seen as relevant to games of chance, like dice and cards. But its implications soon became clear. Bayes' theorem helps explain why highly accurate screening tests can lead to false positives, causing unnecessary anxiety for patients. A failure to account for it in court has put innocent people in jail. But its influence goes far beyond practical applications. A cornerstone of rational thought, Bayesian principles are used in modelling and forecasting. 'Superforecasters', a group of expert predictors who outperform CIA analysts, use a Bayesian approach. And many argue that Bayes' theorem is not just a useful tool, but a description of almost everything - that it is the underlying architecture of rationality, and of the human brain. Fusing biography, razor-sharp science communication and intellectual history, Everything Is Predictable is a captivating tour of Bayes' theorem and its impact on modern life. From medical testing to artificial intelligence, Tom Chivers shows how a single compelling idea can have far-reaching consequences.
Subjects
Statistical decision
Bayesian statistical decision theory
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Bayesian statistical decision theory
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Statistical decision
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Authors:
Chivers, Tom (Science writer)
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